Is it worth spending too much time and effort improving accuracy of forecasts?

Forecasts always have an element of uncertainity that time as nature brings with it …

Me thinks – thumb rules and basic trend analysis – should serve the purpose of forecastng

The best way is to improve responsiveness effectively. That is improving flexibility and adaptibility of the organization to the vagries of the marletplace – minimize the response time at the same time as inventory

Direction of solution –

1. Shift the divergent point as downstream as possible

2. Shift the aggregation point as up stream as possible (demand aggretation point for production planning and inventory supermart set un in replenishment mode)

3. Minimize batches to as small size as allowed by your responsiveness (helps inventory minimization)

4. Use of technology to minimize the cycle time (improves responsiveness)

5. Set up correct measurement to drive the above behave

#supplychain #forecasting #TOC #Responsiveness #adaptibilty #flexibility #oxymoron #throughputoptimization #productionplanning